Analysis
Americans are prepared to take considerable risk to defend allies and partners if they come under threat from China.

On a scale of 1–10 where "10" means worth taking significant risk, the survey reveals mean scores of 6.00 or more for defending South Korea (6.92), Japan (6.88), Taiwan (6.69), and Australia (6.38), as well as an unnamed ally or partner in the South China Sea (6.97).

Evaluated on a scale of "1 – Take no risk" to "10 – Take significant risk"
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CSIS | Public Q6-10

By the Numbers

  • 6.69

    This mean response shows that Americans support taking risk to defend Taiwan (on a scale of 1 to 10).

  • 6.97

    Americans are most prepared to take risk to defend partners in the South China Sea (compared to other responses).

On a scale of 1–10 where "10" means worth taking significant risk, the survey reveals mean scores of 6.00 or more for defending South Korea (6.92), Japan (6.88), Taiwan (6.69), and Australia (6.38), as well as an unnamed ally or partner in the South China Sea (6.97).

For the most part, thought leaders in Asia and Europe believe these commitments to be credible (a mean score of 6.26, with 10 being most confident).

In a conflict with China in the Western Pacific today, the United States would prevail according to 79% of national security experts in the United States and 84% of thought leaders in Asia and Europe, but only about half think that would be true 10 years from now.

However, most Americans and thought leaders in the United States, Asia, and Europe think war with China is possible but not likely.